Gaffney Political Predictions


Correction: According to Kerri-Evelyn Harris’ campaign Press Secretary, the candidate is 38 years old. 


Guest Writer Dan Gaffney, Talk Show Host Delaware 105.9

Let’s take a look at a few match-ups in the upcoming Delaware Primary Election, and the General Election to follow.

In the Democratic race for US Senator, Tom Carper is being challenged by progressive Kerri Evelyn Harris. Kerri is being supported by some campaign staffers who helped 28-year-old Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win an amazing upset primary in New York. Harris is cut from the same cloth as Ocasio-Cortez with her Democratic Socialist leanings. Harris is also in her 20’s and running her first campaign.

It’s interesting to see Tom Carper take her seriously enough to start spending campaign cash on billboards, radio, TV, and internet advertising as early as July. He doesn’t want to be the next entrenched establishment office holder to get upset and is reminding registered Dems to vote on September 6.

As much as I would love to see fresh faces in public office, I still give the edge to Carper in this race. Delaware is too conservative, even among Democrats to elect Kerri-Evelyn Harris.
On the Republican side of the US Senate race we have Sussex County Councilman Rob Arlett, who ran the Trump campaign in the First State versus Gene Truono the former PayPal executive. Also running on the Republic side is Rocky De Le Fuente Roque, a candidate from California who is running in several states. Apparently you can run for US Senate in any State, as long as you make residency prior to taking office, should you win the election.

This race might be close. I think Arlett would be the feistiest candidate to take on an aging Tom Carper, but I get the vibe from my tribe that Truono has much support and more importantly money, so I predict a Gene Truono primary win.

So if my predictions hold true, we will have a Truono vs. Carper Senate race. Edge to Carper with major upstate support. Same old same old. Say hello to Senator Carper for one more term.

For US Congress, our Representative, Democrat Lisa Blunt Rochester has no primary opponent. She will be challenge by one of two Republicans; Scott Walker, the home-made spray painted sign guy, or Lee Murphy, the actor who had a part in House of Cards. Murphy will win the primary. Lisa Blunt Rochester will win the general. Congresswoman Rochester for another term. It’s just the way it rolls in Delaware with high Democratic vote turn out upstate.

In Sussex County, the 35th State Representative District Republican primary between Bob Mitchell and Jesse Vanderwende is an interesting one. Mitchell ran before in an unsuccessful primary against Representative Dave Wilson. Vanderwende is the local farm ice cream guy and is being supported by Representative Dave Wilson. Both men would be a good representative, and I have a prediction but I will have to wait to reveal it until after an August debate I am moderating between the two candidates.

In Sussex County, in the general election, I see an all Republican win for the House and Senate seats. The exception being Pete Schwartkopf in the 14th district. Pete is still a popular Democrat in his Rehoboth area district with a Republican opponent James DeMartino who is just not a strong campaigner.
The Delaware Primary is for registered Democrats or Republicans only and will be held September 6, 2018. The General Election is November 6, 2018.